Nigeria’s hard-won economic gains could quickly unravel if the Federal Government restores the petrol subsidy, Information and National Orientation Minister Mohammed Idris has warned.
In an opinion article published on Monday, Idris said reviving the subsidy would weaken Nigeria’s fiscal position, erode investor confidence and recreate the fuel shortages, market distortions and arbitrage that made the old system unsustainable.
“Restoring subsidy would almost instantly return Nigeria to the economic conditions of 2022,” he said, arguing that the policy would once again place enormous pressure on public finances.
The minister pointed to the cost of the former regime. In 2022, as oil production and government revenues declined, Nigeria spent approximately $10 billion on fuel subsidies.
The World Bank warned at the time that those resources could have been directed toward education, healthcare, infrastructure and social protection.
Since the subsidy was removed in 2023, the government says it has freed ₦15.8 trillion in resources for the Federation. Of that amount, approximately ₦5.43 trillion accrued to the Federal Govt, ₦6.52 trillion to states and ₦3.88 trillion to local govts.
Idris said the additional fiscal space has helped states and local councils meet salary and pension obligations while supporting investments in infrastructure, security, agriculture and human capital.
The govt’s reform scorecard also recorded about ₦6.47 trillion in additional spending on strategic infrastructure and more than ₦400 billion for social investment programmes, including student financing, housing and consumer credit initiatives. Social transfers, he added, have reached more than 10 million households.
The minister warned that the country is already carrying a substantial electricity subsidy—estimated at ₦3.14 trillion between June 2023 and December 2025. Restoring petrol subsidies, he said, would add another major burden to an already strained public purse.
He urged Nigerians to weigh the subsidy debate against its opportunity costs: whether to redirect funds from student loans, state allocations, roads, power, security, healthcare and education back into subsidising petrol consumption.
“Nigeria cannot build tomorrow’s economy by returning to yesterday’s unsustainable subsidy regime,” Idris said. “We have moved beyond that model.”
The minister’s message was clear: the reform may be painful, but reversing it could cost Nigeria far more than enduring its short-term consequences.