Nigeria’s victory in the long-running arbitration over the stalled Mambilla Hydropower Project has been hailed as a major financial and economic breakthrough, shielding the country from potential claims exceeding $3.38 billion.
The International Chamber of Commerce tribunal in Paris rejected Sunrise Power and Transmission Company Limited’s $2.35 billion claim against the Federal Government, as well as a separate $400 million claim linked to a proposed settlement.
The Tinubu Stakeholders Forum described the ruling as a turning point for Nigeria’s finances and electricity sector.
In a statement signed by its Chairman, Ahmad Sajoh, and Secretary, Danjuma Sada, the group said the decision would prevent a massive drain on public finances and give the government greater room to address the power sector’s ₦3.3 trillion in verified legacy obligations.
According to the forum, the defeated claim was larger than the government’s entire $2.3 billion power-sector settlement programme, making the arbitration victory especially significant.
Beyond the courtroom, the ruling could also clear a major legal obstacle surrounding the Mambilla project—one of Nigeria’s most ambitious but long-delayed infrastructure schemes.
If completed, the project is expected to significantly expand electricity generation and support growth in manufacturing, mining, agriculture, technology and other productive sectors.
The forum urged the Federal Government to move quickly on the next phase of the project while maintaining transparency, commercial discipline and strong contractual safeguards.
It also said the ruling sent a positive signal to international investors about Nigeria’s willingness to defend its economic interests through established legal channels.
The arbitration outcome has also ignited a political confrontation.
The Democratic Front, in a statement signed by its Chairman, Danjuma Muhammad, and Secretary, Wale Adedayo, backed calls by Minister of Solid Minerals Dele Alake for former Vice President Atiku Abubakar to withdraw from the 2027 presidential race.
The group alleged that the arbitration proceedings raised questions about the 2003 award of the Mambilla contract to Sunrise Power and cited a $500,000 payment allegedly made to Atiku Abubakar’s former wife.
TDF further claimed that the project award breached procurement rules and questioned Sunrise Power’s experience in delivering major hydroelectric projects.
The group said the prolonged dispute had cost Nigeria a major opportunity to strengthen its national grid and accelerate development, particularly in northern Nigeria.
It argued that the tribunal’s findings should prompt Atiku to provide explanations before seeking the presidency.
While TDF used the ruling to intensify its political criticism, the broader significance of the case lies in what comes next. For Nigeria, the arbitration victory has removed a potentially crippling liability.
The real test now is whether the government can turn that legal success into affordable electricity, stronger public finances and the long-delayed delivery of the Mambilla project.