A recent statement by the Nigerian Democratic Congress (NDC) Presidential Candidate, Peter Obi has ignited a fresh debate over Nigeria’s economic trajectory under President Bola Tinubu’s administration.
Obi’s critique, shared on X, highlights a perplexing paradox: significant increase in national revenue alongside alarming surge in public debt and a deterioration of key socio-economic indicators, leading to what he describes as “yet more hardship for Nigerians.”
The Revenue-Debt Conundrum
Peter Obi asserted that Nigeria’s revenue is projected to increase from N16.8 trillion in 2022 to N35 trillion in 2025, an increase of over 100%.
However, he juxtaposed this with a claim
that the nation’s total debt has ballooned to approximately N200 trillion, marking an increase of over N100 trillion in just three years under the current administration.
Official data from Nigeria’s Debt Management Office (DMO) provides a clearer picture of the debt profile. As of December 31, 2025, Nigeria’s total public debt stood at N159.276 trillion.
This figure includes both external and domestic debt, with external debt at US$110.973 billion (equivalent to N74.426 trillion at an exchange rate of N1435.2571 per US$1) and domestic debt at N84.849 trillion.
While this is a substantial amount, it is important to note that Obi’s projected N200 trillion debt figure for 2025 appears to be an estimation or a forward-looking warning, as the DMO’s latest published data for December 2025 is N159.276 trillion.
Regarding revenue, while specific official figures for 2025 are still projections, reports from the OECD indicate that Nigeria’s tax-to-GDP ratio increased from 7.9% in 2022 to 8.2% in 2023.
The Nigerian government also reported that from January to August 2025, total
collections reached N20.59 trillion, a 40.5% increase from N14.6 trillion recorded in 2024.
These figures suggest a positive trend in revenue generation, aligning with Obi’s
observation of increased revenue.
Worsening Socio-Economic Indicators
Obi’s statement further lamented the worsening socio-economic conditions, citing an increase in multi-dimensional poverty from 87 million people in 2023 to over 140 million in 2025.
He also pointed to rapidly increasing unemployment and a decline in GDP per capita from $1,597 in 2023 to $1,223 in 2025.
Data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) in 2022 indicated that 63% of persons living in Nigeria (133 million people) were multidimensionally poor.
While the 2025 figure of 140 million cited by Obi is an increase, it aligns with projections from organizations like the World Bank, which estimated that more than half of all Nigerians (52.5 percent)
would live in poverty in 2025.
On GDP per capita, World Bank data shows Nigeria’s GDP per capita (current US$) was $2,184.6 in 2022 and $2,163.6 in 2023. Other sources, such as FIJ NG, reported a drop in Nigeria’s GDP per capita from $877 in 2024 to $835 in 2025, according to the International
Monetary Fund (IMF).
This indicates a discrepancy in the exact figures but confirms a downward trend in GDP per capita, supporting Obi’s claim of a decline.
Unemployment figures also present a mixed picture. While Obi mentioned the rapid increase in unemployment, Statista reported Nigeria’s unemployment rate at 3.06 percent in 2025.
However, the NBS in February 2025, using a new methodology, reported the
unemployment rate as 4.3% and “time- related underemployment” as 9.2%.
These figures are significantly lower than previous reports, which often placed unemployment much higher, suggesting a change in methodology might be influencing the perception of unemployment trends.
Government’s Perspective
President Bola Tinubu’s aide, Dada Olusegun, responded to Obi’s claims, attributing the increase in Nigeria’s debt portfolio primarily to currency devaluation rather than new borrowings.
Olusegun highlighted that the administration inherited a significant Ways and Means debt of approximately N20 trillion, which was securitized for repayment, contributing substantially to the perceived debt increase.
He also noted that Nigeria’s public debt includes loans taken by subnationals, while further argued that Nigeria’s debt in dollar terms remained relatively stable, ranging from $108 billion in 2023 to $109 billion in 2026, emphasizing that this reflects the country’s true debt levels.
He also pointed out that Nigeria’s net external reserves have grown from $3 billion in 2023 to around $40 billion in 2026.
The Unanswered Question
Despite the differing interpretations of the economic data, the core question posed by Peter Obi remains: “Where did all the money go?”
He calls for a detailed and transparent
explanation of the management of Nigeria’s economic and financial resources since 2023.
Advocating for an end to what he terms “imprudent, unaccountable, and opaque
management of our common patrimony”.
As Nigeria navigates these complex economic waters, the call for transparency and accountability from both political leaders and international community underscores the urgent need for clear communication and effective strategies to alleviate the hardship faced by millions of Nigerians.