The International Monetary Fund said Monday that its staff and Haiti’s authorities had reached a staff-level agreement on the fourth review of the country’s Staff-Monitored Program, a step that remains subject to approval by IMF management.
The agreement comes as Haiti faces persistent insecurity, severe humanitarian pressures, institutional fragility and a delicate political transition ahead of elections.
IMF said the country’s economy is expected to contract for an eighth consecutive year in fiscal 2026, with higher oil prices, weak textile and apparel exports, and insecurity continuing to weigh on economic activity.
The IMF’s virtual mission, led by Camilo E. Tovar, took place from Sept. 14 to 25. The review assessed Haiti’s progress under the informal monitoring program, which is intended to help the authorities establish a track record of economic policy implementation that could eventually support a request for an IMF-backed program with access to financial resources.
The IMF emphasized that a Staff- Monitored Program does not constitute an endorsement by the Fund’s Executive Board. Staff reports under such programs are provided to the Board for information.
Most targets met despite difficult conditions
According to the IMF, Haiti met all quantitative and indicative targets at the end of June, with one exception: the continuous target on the non- accumulation of external arrears.
The arrears arose temporarily because of administrative and capacity constraints, but were cleared promptly, the Fund said.
Net international reserves rose to about $1.9 billion by the end of June, well above the program floor. Haiti also met the ceiling on central bank financing of the nonfinancial public sector.
The IMF said implementation of structural reforms was moving forward, although delays remained because of limited administrative capacity and the country’s difficult operating environment.
Haitian authorities, it added, had reported progress on areas covered by forth- coming structural benchmarks and remained committed to the reform agenda.
Inflation falls but economic pressures remain Economic activity is projected to decline again in fiscal 2026. The IMF attributed the contraction to prolonged insecurity, elevated oil prices and weak prospects for Haiti’s textile and apparel exports.
Inflation is expected to average about 16% year-on-year during the fiscal year. While that remains high, it is a marked improvement from the rate of more than 32% recorded in October 2025.
The decline has been supported in part by exchange-rate stability. Financial intermediation remains subdued as weak economic activity and uncertainty
discourage lending and investment.
The external position is being supported by strong remittance inflows and adequate foreign-exchange reserves.
The current account is expected to remain in surplus despite a weak trade balance, while reserves are estimated at
roughly seven months of prospective imports.
The IMF warned, however, that sustained increases in fuel-import costs continue to pose a significant risk to Haiti’s external position.
Security and political risks dominate outlook
The Fund said insecurity continues to suppress economic activity and disrupt the delivery of basic services, worsening Haiti’s already dire humanitarian conditions.
It described the political transition as fragile and said a credible electoral process would depend on improved security, sufficient financing and continued international backing.
The deployment of the Gang Suppression Force has raised hopes of a gradual improvement in security conditions, according to the IMF. But the Fund said risks to Haiti’s outlook remain tilted to the downside.
A renewed deterioration in security, further oil-price increases, or delayed adjustments to fuel prices and minimum wages could weaken growth and keep inflation elevated.
The possible reduction in remittances following the end of Temporary Protected Status for Haitians in the United States could add to economic and humanitarian vulnerability. The IMF also cited the possibility of an El Niño-related drought as an additional risk.
On the upside, lower oil prices, stronger security gains and a smooth electoral process could reduce uncertainty, restore confidence and support a stronger recovery.
Fiscal pressure intensifies
Haiti’s fiscal authorities face mounting pressure from exceptionally weak government revenue, higher international oil prices and urgent security, humanitarian and development needs.
The IMF said creating room for those priorities while protecting vulnerable households and preserving macro- economic stability will require stronger domestic revenue collection, continued improvements in tax and customs administration, realistic expenditure planning and careful prioritization.
The Fund also urged prudent financing without resorting to nonconcessional borrowing.
Improved budget execution, cash management and payroll controls could help increase the quality of public spending and limit growth in the govt wage bill.
The IMF also called for stronger commitment controls, consolidation of the Treasury Single Account and
better expenditure traceability.
The entry into force of Haiti’s new tax code on Oct. 1 is expected to be an important milestone in the country’s tax-reform program.
Effective implementation, closer
coordination between tax and customs authorities, and a transparent, rules- based fuelpricing system will be essential to improve compliance and reduce revenue leakages, the Fund said.
Governance reforms remain central to program
The IMF said Haiti’s monitored program will continue to prioritize governance, financial integrity and the rule of law.
It identified the operationalization of newly established specialized judicial chambers for complex financial and mass crimes as critical to strengthening enforcement against corruption, money laundering and organized crime.
Other priorities include implementing the National Risk Assessment action plan, advancing reforms linked to the Financial Action Task Force, adequately resourcing Haiti’s financial intelligence unit, improving beneficial-ownership transparency, strengthening interagency
cooperation and making asset tracing and recovery more effective.
The Fund also stressed the importance of maintaining sound debt-management practices and securing the resources needed to meet debt-service obligations on time.
The remaining resources from the IMF’s 2023 Food Shock Window should be used effectively to support vulnerable households and improve social assistance, while oversight and audit
findings are addressed, it said.
Central bank and financial-sector reforms
The Banque de la République d’Haïti remains committed to preserving price and.exchange-rate stability, which the IMF described as essential to maintaining confidence in the program.
The Fund urged the central bank to continue strengthening reserve management, internal controls, investment-governance procedures, risk management, information-technology
security and business-continuity arrangements.
Financial-sector oversight is also being strengthened through risk-based supervision, including testing of risk-assessment grids and rating matrices.
Work is under way to finalize
a new chart of accounts for financial institutions, reforms that the IMF said should improve supervision, financial reporting and risk management.
The central bank has published its fiscal 2024 audit and financial statements and is working to address qualifications and recommendations relating to fiscal 2023.
The IMF said the timely publication of fiscal 2025 and fiscal 2026 financial statements and audit reports would help reinforce transparency and accountability.
Call for international support
The IMF said predictable external assistance—particularly grants and concessional borrowing consistent with debt sustainability—will be needed to help Haiti meet urgent humanitarian, security and development needs while advancing institutional reforms.
Such support, combined with rigorous project appraisal, transparency requirements and.monitoring of donor- financed operations, could help protect Haiti’s public-sector balance sheet and support a durable recovery, the Fund said.
IMF staff will continue working with Haiti’s development partners on governance and capacity-building efforts, including through the recently launched Compact for Recovery and Prevention, prepared by the Haitian government with the World Bank and other international partners.
The IMF mission met with Haiti’s Economy and Finance Minister Serge Gabriel Collin, central bank Governor Ronald Gabriel and other senior officials. The Fund said it appreciated the authorities’ cooperation and the open discussions during the review.
